U.S. NATIONAL POWER IS DECLINING IN 2025.

HERE’S WHY.

National Power in a democracy is the capacity and will to achieve the national interest. This diagram shows how its elements relate to each other.

This is not a proposal or a theory; it describes reality. When any element or link between elements weakens, the entire system weakens.

The national interest is debated and negotiated continually. But I assert that our national interest is to grow US power through efficient and adaptable government assuring full economic access. Far from being a personal preference, these are central to the Constitution’s stated purpose of the US government. Full access to the economy promotes the general welfare and secures the blessings of liberty, to say nothing of ensuring tranquility and providing for the common defense. And the government should do this efficiently, adapting constantly.

Politics that faithfully champion this national interest will dominate for many years, because it aligns with what most people want from the country. They want good jobs in a strong economy. They want a say in government that works well without excessive bureaucracy. And they want to be proud of their country.

Since the 1990’s, this system’s main weakness has been political and governmental deadlock driven by increasing polarization. In between world-shaking emergencies like the financial crisis or Covid, obstructionism has been blocking new legislation from addressing our main issues. As a result, problems like immigration and trade policy have festered, leaving the economy and government agencies to lurch ahead zombie-like according to old rules. As these problems grow worse, the parties are ever more frantically at each other’s throats.

Adding insult to injury, in 2025 the Trump administration is wildly overcorrecting this sclerosis through abrupt and sweeping but largely uncoordinated executive actions in immigration, government staffing and industrial policy. While these actions cheer ardent Trumpists with power and dominance over Democrats, they’ve roiled world markets and stifled many basic functions of government, with great uncertainty about more.

So, while pre-Trump deadlock stifled the growth of national power and kept it on a trajectory unsatisfying to a majority of voters (e.g., an unequal economy with stagnant real wages, and unproductive congresses forcing annual budget stalemates), Trump’s actions in 2025 have directly and rapidly shrunk national power in several areas. Stock values have become highly volatile, world markets are selling US Treasury bonds, allied governments are professing distrust in US leadership, and government workers spend much of their time searching for new job options outside government. These examples measurably reduce economic, diplomatic, and governmental power, respectively. And this is to say nothing of the division and discord reducing the political element of national power, which is defined by the population’s average level of trust in the legitimacy and effectiveness of government leadership.

Principled Power advocates for politics and policies directed at growing our national power through efficient government that assures citizens economic access. We have a long way to go.